Linking of emission permit markets allows participants in different systems to purchase allowances from each other for the purposes of domestic compliance. As increasing efficiency in reducing carbon emissions is critical for achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, it is necessary to understand the factors that can impact the stability of linked markets, and what can be done to induce formation of larger and more efficient linked markets.
In their recent paper, Doda, Quemin, and Taschini (2019) studied efficiency gains generated in multilateral linkings between permit markets, and concluded that although the linking of all jurisdictions maximizes efficiency gains, it is not likely to emerge as it is not the most preferred option by all participants. In this paper, we formulate the linking problem as a cooperative game and show that linking of all jurisdictions satisfies stability criteria as defined by the core of the underlying game. Thus, no subset of jurisdictions would benefit from creating their separate linked market, and the gains will be maximized in the all-inclusive emission permit market.
We then extend our analysis to arbitrary coalition structures and farsightedness level and analyze the stable linking of emission permit markets between five jurisdictions: Australia, Canada, the EU, South Korea, and the U.S. Due to asymmetry between different jurisdictions, our results indicate that the most likely stable configuration includes two linked markets: a market that links Australia, the EU, and the U.S., and another in which Canada is linked with South Korea. This scenario leaves about 15% of potential efficiency gains unrealized. To mitigate this issue, we suggest that efficiency gains from market linkage be allocated according to the Shapley value, which takes into account contributions of different jurisdictions to common markets. If the Shapley value allocation is used, our results suggest that we would see stable linking of all five jurisdictions and thus increase the efficiency of market linkage.