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Doug Joines is a macroeconomist who research has focused on taxes, deficits, and social security. His work has been published in the American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, and Journal of Business. In 1992, the National Science Foundation awarded him a research grant to investigate the effect of social security programs. Professor Joines has held visiting appointments at the University of Tokyo, Claremont McKenna College, University of Rochester, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. During 2007-2009, he served as Marshall's Vice Dean for Academic Programs.
RESEARCH + PUBLICATIONS
This paper quantifies the role of alternative shocks in accounting for the recent declines in the Japanese saving rate and provides some projections about its future course. We consider three distinct sources of variation in the saving rate: changes in fertility rates, changes in survival rates, and changes in technology. The empirical relevance of these factors is explored using a computable dynamic OLG model. Our model successfully explains historical variation in the saving rate and other aggregate variables including the after-tax real interest rate, hours per worker and output. Model projections indicate that the Japanese saving rate will be much lower in future years and will not recover to levels of 15 percent that were seen as recently as 1990.